diff --git a/impact-methodology.md b/impact-methodology.md index 6abc45b..189ffcd 100644 --- a/impact-methodology.md +++ b/impact-methodology.md @@ -645,23 +645,41 @@ demand signal that drives system-level growth. | Grid displacement | Low | 2-5x | No | | Community impacts | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | | Annotation labor | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | -| Cognitive deskilling | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | +| Cognitive deskilling | Very low | Unquantifiable | Proxy | | Linguistic homogenization | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | -| Code quality degradation | Low | Variable | Partly | -| Data pollution / model collapse | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | +| Code quality degradation | Low | Variable | Proxy | +| Data pollution / model collapse | Very low | Unquantifiable | Proxy | | Scientific integrity | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | -| Algorithmic monoculture | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | +| Algorithmic monoculture | Very low | Unquantifiable | Proxy | | Creative market displacement | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | | Political cost | Very low | Unquantifiable | No | | Content filtering (opacity) | Medium | Unquantifiable | No | | Jevons paradox (systemic) | Low | Fundamental | No | +**Proxy metrics** (marked "Proxy" above): These categories cannot be +directly quantified per conversation, but the impact toolkit now tracks +measurable proxies: +- **Cognitive deskilling**: Automation ratio (AI output tokens / total + tokens). High ratio = more delegation, higher deskilling risk. +- **Code quality degradation**: Test pass/fail counts and file churn + (edits per unique file). High churn or failures = more rework. +- **Data pollution / model collapse**: Public push flag — detects when + AI-generated code is pushed to a public repository. +- **Algorithmic monoculture**: Model ID logged per session, enabling + provider concentration analysis over time. + +These proxies are crude — a high automation ratio does not prove +deskilling, and a public push does not prove pollution. But they make +the costs visible and trackable rather than purely abstract. + **Overall assessment:** Of the 20+ cost categories identified, only 6 can be quantified with any confidence (inference energy, PUE, grid -intensity, client energy, financial cost, water). The remaining categories -resist quantification — not because they are small, but because they are -diffuse, systemic, or involve incommensurable values (human rights, -cognitive autonomy, cultural diversity, democratic governance). +intensity, client energy, financial cost, water). Four more now have +proxy metrics that capture a measurable signal, even if indirect. The +remaining categories resist quantification — not because they are small, +but because they are diffuse, systemic, or involve incommensurable +values (human rights, cognitive autonomy, cultural diversity, democratic +governance). A methodology that only counts what it can measure will systematically undercount the true cost. The quantifiable costs are almost certainly the diff --git a/tasks/README.md b/tasks/README.md index 92399c9..fd01e46 100644 --- a/tasks/README.md +++ b/tasks/README.md @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ separately as handoffs. | 22 | Add file churn metric to hook | quantify-social-costs | DONE | `unique_files_edited` and `total_file_edits` in JSONL log | | 23 | Add public push flag to hook | quantify-social-costs | DONE | `has_public_push` flag in JSONL log | | 24 | Update show-impact.sh for new fields | quantify-social-costs | DONE | Social cost proxies displayed in impact viewer | -| 25 | Update methodology confidence summary | quantify-social-costs | TODO | Move proxied categories from "Unquantifiable" to "Proxy available" | +| 25 | Update methodology confidence summary | quantify-social-costs | DONE | 4 categories moved to "Proxy", explanation added | ## Handoffs