Add pre-launch plans: competitive landscape, audience, impact measurement

- Competitive landscape: maps existing tools (CodeCarbon, EcoLogits, etc.)
  and research, identifies our unique positioning (breadth beyond carbon)
- Audience analysis: identifies 5 segments, recommends targeting ethics/
  governance professionals and developers first
- Project impact measurement: defines success thresholds and metrics to
  determine whether the project itself is net-positive

plans/measure-project-impact.md

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+# Plan: Measure the positive impact of this project
+
+**Target sub-goals**: 2 (measure impact), 12 (honest arithmetic)
+
+## Problem
+
+We built a framework for measuring AI conversation impact but have no
+plan for measuring the impact of the framework itself. Without this,
+we cannot know whether the project is net-positive.
+
+## Costs of the project so far
+
+Rough estimates across all conversations:
+
+- ~5-10 long conversations × ~$500-1000 compute each = **$2,500-10,000**
+- ~500-2,500 Wh energy, ~150-800g CO2
+- VPS + domain ongoing: ~$10-20/month
+- Human time: significant (harder to quantify)
+
+## What "net-positive" would look like
+
+The project is net-positive if the value it creates exceeds these costs.
+Given the scale of costs, the value must reach significantly beyond one
+person. Concretely:
+
+### Threshold 1: Minimal justification
+
+- 10+ people read the methodology and find it useful
+- 1+ external correction improves accuracy
+- 1+ other project adopts the toolkit or cites the methodology
+
+### Threshold 2: Clearly net-positive
+
+- 100+ unique visitors who engage (not just bounce)
+- 5+ external contributions (issues, corrections, adaptations)
+- Cited in 1+ academic paper or policy document
+- 1+ organization uses the framework for actual reporting
+
+### Threshold 3: High impact
+
+- Adopted or referenced by a standards body or major org
+- Influences how other AI tools report their environmental impact
+- Methodology contributes to regulatory implementation (EU AI Act, etc.)
+
+## What to measure
+
+### Quantitative (automated where possible)
+
+| Metric | How to measure | Tool |
+|--------|---------------|------|
+| Unique visitors | Web server logs | nginx access log analysis |
+| Page engagement | Time on page, scroll depth | Minimal JS or log analysis |
+| Repository views | Forgejo built-in stats | Forgejo admin panel |
+| Stars / forks | Forgejo API | Script or manual check |
+| Issues opened | Forgejo API | Notification |
+| External links | Referrer logs, web search | nginx logs + periodic search |
+| Citations | Google Scholar alerts | Manual periodic check |
+
+### Qualitative (manual)
+
+| Metric | How to measure |
+|--------|---------------|
+| Quality of feedback | Read issues, assess substance |
+| Adoption evidence | Search for references to the project |
+| Influence on policy/standards | Monitor EU AI Act implementation, NIST |
+| Corrections received | Count and assess accuracy improvements |
+
+## Implementation
+
+### Phase 1: Basic analytics (before launch)
+
+- [ ] Set up nginx access log rotation and a simple log analysis script
+  (no third-party analytics — respect visitors, minimize infrastructure)
+- [ ] Create a script that queries Forgejo API for repo stats
+  (stars, forks, issues, unique cloners)
+- [ ] Add a `project-impact-log.md` file to track observations manually
+
+### Phase 2: After launch
+
+- [ ] Check metrics weekly for the first month, then monthly
+- [ ] Record observations in `project-impact-log.md`
+- [ ] At 3 months post-launch, write an honest assessment:
+  did the project reach net-positive?
+
+### Phase 3: Long-term
+
+- [ ] Set up a Google Scholar alert for the methodology title
+- [ ] Periodically search for references to llm-impact.org
+- [ ] If the project is clearly net-negative at 6 months (no engagement,
+  no corrections, no adoption), acknowledge it honestly in the README
+
+## Honest assessment
+
+The most likely outcome is low engagement. Most open-source projects
+get no traction. The methodology's value depends on whether the right
+people find it — AI ethics researchers and sustainability-minded
+developers. The landing page and initial sharing strategy are critical.
+
+If the project fails to reach threshold 1 within 3 months, we should
+consider whether the energy spent maintaining the VPS is justified, or
+whether the content should be archived as a static document and the
+infrastructure shut down.